3-Year Plan · Three statements, three cases

Model is balanced.

Every scenario below pulls from a single drivers sheet — change one yellow cell and 1,438 linked formulas recompute. Starting point is $2.0M ARR. P&L ties to cash ties to balance sheet, no hardcodes past row 12. The 5×5 sensitivity grid stress-tests Rule of 40 across the full growth × margin range.

Scenarios

Funded

Tight

Breach

Model changelog

Last 14 edits

v6 · drivers!C7

Wired 5×5 Rule-of-40 sensitivity grid (growth × FCF margin) Two-variable data table on Sensitivity!B4:G9. Growth axis 8→35%, margin axis 0→32%. Conditional format flags any cell <40 in amber. 11 of 25 cells currently clear the bar.

SensitivityData TableLinked

Added

v5 · opex!F22

Bear case runway dropped below 18 months after S&M re-link Tying sales spend to 0.9× net-new ARR pushed bear-case burn to –$148K/mo. Added a hiring-freeze toggle (drivers!C31) that claws back 7 months of runway when TRUE.

BearHeadcountMitigated

Review

v4 · checks!B2

Killed the last circular reference in interest expense Replaced the cash → interest → cash loop with a prior-period average balance. Iterative calc is now OFF and the workbook opens clean on any machine.

IntegrityAll Cases

Fixed

v3 · drivers!C4

Locked starting ARR at $2.00M and split growth into three named cases Base 20% · Bull 35% · Bear 8%. Scenario picker is a single dropdown driving INDEX/MATCH across every revenue line — no more three-tab copy-paste.

DriversRevenueStructural

Added